It’s time the Phillies got serious about finding younger talent.
In recent days, headlines regarding the Phillies have centered around the friction between Jimmy Rollins and manager Ryne Sandberg, the Phillies ineptitude to score runs in Grapefruit League play, and Ryan Howard attempting to rediscover his batting stroke. On top of that, an underlying theme for spring has been Sandberg’s attempts to find a balance between getting veterans the proper preparation in spring training while respecting his desire to save them for the regular season. And on top of that, the Phillies top-heavy starting rotation is becoming a bit lighter on top with each of Cole Hamels fits and starts to begin throwing regularly.
It’s easy to get caught up in all of this and argue about just how many games the Phillies are going to lose in 2014. (Some scouts are suggesting the Phillies might actually be worse than the Marlins. You know, the Marlins that had a payroll in 2013 that was around 21% the size of the Phillies payroll.) But really, arguing about how bad or really bad the Phillies are going to be in 2014 is the equivalent of fiddling –perhaps a funeral dirge– while Rome burns.
Sure, 2014 is right in front of us and given the winter we’ve all just endured, we almost need to have an entertaining summer of baseball to look forward to. Heck, just get us to September when Chip Kelly can take over and dazzle us. But as phans, we’re in this for the long haul. If we’re serious about having a quite competitive franchise again at some point, we need to start realizing what really ails this team. Yes, the team is old, and yes that is a direct result of Ruben Amaro, Jr. signing too many high-priced free agents and retaining too many high-priced veterans. But in reality, looking back through the clarity of hindsight, what choice did he have?
In a group email thread concerning the Phillies, a friend pointed out something that we’ve all noticed over the years. He wrote, “It’s a washed-up ball club that last developed real homegrown talent 10 years ago.” Ten years might be a stretch, but it’s not far off. Consider this: since the 2008 World Series Championship, what regulars have the Phillies developed in-house? In 2012 there was Vance Worley and in 2013 there was Domonic Brown’s prodigious May and late-season cameos by Cody Asche and Darin Ruf. In 2011 there was no one, nor was there anyone produced in 2010 or 2009. As for Worley, it looks like a decent 2012 was the high-water mark of his career (extra-credit for the Phillies recognizing when to trade him to the Minnesota Twins for Ben Revere) and as for Dom Brown, 2013 could end up being a breakout year or, if he fails to adjust to pitchers who adjusted to him, just a blip on the radar.
But either way, whether Brown and Asche regress or progress, it won’t change the fact that the Phillies scouts, talent evaluators and developmental staff, from top to bottom, has been horrific for years at filling in players to surround the aging core. Defenders of these folks might point out that trades for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence depleted the system of talent to replace the Utley, Howard, Rollins et al. That should then elicit the rhetorical question, “which of those trade chips have turned out to be valuable major league players?” Johnathan Singleton is really the only prospect from those trades that has a chance to turn into something special.
As a matter of fact, not only has the Phillies system managed to produce next to no everyday players or starting pitchers, but they can’t even manage to produce serviceable backups to the regulars. The fact that Michael Martinez got nearly 400 plate appearances from 2011 to 2013 makes that fact abundantly clear. This year, they are hoping Bobby Abreu, age 40, can be the left-handed bat off the bench.
When you are in the position the Phillies are in, where the farm system is bereft of talent and there is a desire to be competitive year in and year out at the major league level, you are left with only one option: spend and spend and spend. Rarely over the last few years have the Yankees produced regular and valuable every day players and starting pitchers, but they have remained competitive by spending heavily and going over the luxury tax to cover up their deficiencies, at least temporarily. But the Phillies have chosen not to do that. They’ve chosen to stay below the luxury tax and hitch their wagon to some pretty old horses.
We’ve all mocked Ruben Amaro, Jr. for signing old guy after old guy and there’s no doubt he hasn’t helped himself by ignoring mountains of data readily available for free on the web. But really, where he’s really failed is in the area of player development. Just one valuable player coming out of the farm system every year coupled with a shrewd move or two in free agency, you know, the opposite of Delmon Young, and he wouldn’t have to ride players into their late-30’s. Amaro needed to extend Rollins and Ruiz and Howard and Utley because, hey, somebody has to take the field who’s half decent at least.
By adding an analytics department, the Phillies will hopefully become more shrewd at acquiring players at the major league level. But in reality, where the department will hopefully find a way to have the most impact is in the area of player development. High-school and college-level talent is a hard area for sabermetrics to thrive, but it’s clear, the Phillies’ scouts need all the help they can get. If they signed a star or two, they might not feel the need to get revenge on college kids.
